I wrote an article last February expressing my bearish view on U.S. treasury bonds when the 10-year Treasury yield was at about 1.9%. I did not actually bet against treasury bonds at that time because, technically speaking, the upward momentum for treasury bonds was still very strong. As for NFLX, my major shorting bet in 2011, shorting against a stock/bond close to the top of the hype is a tricky and dangerous maneuver because it is hard to know where the exact long-term top of the stock/bond is and when the stock/bond will reach that top. In addition, the situation in Europe was still very dire at that time, which could have provided additional support for treasury bonds. My concern turned out to be real, and the 10-year Treasury yield continued to slide to an all-time low of just below 1.4% and has climbed steadily since. It has now gone a full cycle back to about 1.9%.
See my full article on Seeking Alpha.